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  #161  
Old June 28th, 2009, 11:09 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Overdose View Post
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8122871.stm

Iran has arrested British embassy staff, accusing them of having a major role in the protests. Naturally we're furious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Klio View Post
And personally, I'd like to say that I don't think that Britain DID have anything to do with the protests.
Realistically, I'd think it's a bit of a strecth for western intelligence agencies to be entirely divorced from the protets.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mundungus Fletc View Post
And of course it's the BBC they're against - they can't abide the fact that the Iranian people are being told the facts.
Curse that liberal media.


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  #162  
Old June 28th, 2009, 11:30 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

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Originally Posted by Wab View Post
Realistically, I'd think it's a bit of a strecth for western intelligence agencies to be entirely divorced from the protets.
Hmmmm... I am sure there is a lot of intelligence gathering going on. With no-one knowing on any more who exactly controls what and where the different parts of the Iranian government system stand on the election results, that's inevitable. I'd also assume that they'll try to stay on top of the different potential reformist camps (if there is anything that deserves such an 'organised' label).

But having the intellience people in there to gater information is different from having them in there to foment revolution. I am in no doubt that it might be possible (though probably for the US more easily than the UK).

But would the UK government in particular want to support a revolution in Iran right now? I'd find that highly unlikely under the current circumstances.
Same goes for the US, actually.


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  #163  
Old June 28th, 2009, 11:34 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Politically, a destabilised (as opposed to anarchic) Iran can be seen as advatageous to US interests as it would disrupt lines of supply and support to militants in Afghanistan and Iraq and make Syria more amenable to talks.


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  #164  
Old June 28th, 2009, 11:56 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Hmmmm.... I can't quite envisage a 'destabilised (as opposed to anarchic)' Iran. That's a VERY risky strategy. I wonder whether the current white house isn't too pragmatic for this sort of strategy.

And frankly, I don't think the current UK governemt would be up to it even if it wanted to.


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  #165  
Old June 29th, 2009, 11:09 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wab View Post
Politically, a destabilised (as opposed to anarchic) Iran can be seen as advatageous to US interests as it would disrupt lines of supply and support to militants in Afghanistan and Iraq and make Syria more amenable to talks.
Much depends on which way the military in Iran goes, but the government already is destabilized. The current leadership of Iran had demonstrated quite clearly that it does not have the support of the people. If the military steps in an quells the protest then the ruling power will know that they are only in power because of the military.

The choice for the international community at this time is whether we want to negotiate with a government that assassinates it's own people and allow that same government to obtain nuclear weapons, or whether we want to back the revolutionaries with the hope that they'll be willing to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for dropping sanctions.


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  #166  
Old June 30th, 2009, 12:29 am
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

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Originally Posted by monster_mom View Post
The choice for the international community at this time is whether we want to negotiate with a government that assassinates it's own people and allow that same government to obtain nuclear weapons, or whether we want to back the revolutionaries with the hope that they'll be willing to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for dropping sanctions.
Straw man.

Bit hypocritical, too.


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  #167  
Old June 30th, 2009, 12:57 am
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_mom View Post
The choice for the international community at this time is whether we want to negotiate with a government that assassinates it's own people and allow that same government to obtain nuclear weapons, or whether we want to back the revolutionaries with the hope that they'll be willing to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for dropping sanctions.

I think that's not actually a realistic choice. Thre are protesters, but this was always far from an outright revolution (it isn't unified enough), and its even further from one now.

I also think that it makes little sense to make everything dependent on the nuclear issue. The genie is out of the bottle whatever we do....

Of course, I'd rather have Iran without nuclear weapons - but there are a number of *actual* nuclear states, pasticularly Pakistan and North Korea about which I am just as worried, and I am not exactly relaxed about Israel or India, either - so I don't quite see how this should be a make-or-break regime change issue in Iran.






On a different note -

BBC Radio re-broadcast a fascinating documentation on the background of Iran's state today. There are two more to come. You can listen to the first one here

The programmes are from 2006, apparently, but I found the first one very informative, since it tries to give a background to Iran's often awkward behaviour on the international stage.

The programme makers consulted many people with first-hand expertise (most of them Iranian, but also experts from the UK and US).

Highly recommended.

The other two programmes will become available Tuesday and Wednesday, after they are broadcast on FM radio.


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Last edited by Klio; June 30th, 2009 at 1:04 am.
  #168  
Old July 5th, 2009, 12:27 am
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

While we American's celebrate our independence, let's all remember that in Iran people are still dieing.



US in Barcelona dedicated Sunday Bloody Sunday to the Iranian protesters.



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  #169  
Old July 5th, 2009, 2:20 am
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_mom View Post
The choice for the international community at this time is whether we want to negotiate with a government that assassinates it's own people and allow that same government to obtain nuclear weapons, or whether we want to back the revolutionaries with the hope that they'll be willing to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for dropping sanctions.
You have to deal with the governments you have, not the ones you'd like and not one of the serious contenders for the election repudiated Iran's nuclear program (nor did any of them favour a fundamental change in the system in Iran).

The recent hubbub about Iran's nuclear ambitions is all the more interesting as the country has had an active nuclear research program since the previous democratic government was overthrown and the dictatorship of the Shah installed.

Even after US intelligence revealed "data indicating that the Shah has set up a clandestine nuclear weapons development program" in the late 1970s, the US continued to supply highly enriched uranium until the Revolution.

In all, it's just as well as State agreed with the Joint Chiefs' "suggestion to place nuclear weapons in Iran".

http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/1825_1826.html


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  #170  
Old July 5th, 2009, 3:00 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wab View Post
You have to deal with the governments you have, not the ones you'd like and not one of the serious contenders for the election repudiated Iran's nuclear program (nor did any of them favour a fundamental change in the system in Iran).
You also have to decide whether you wan to give legitimacy to the illegitimate government of Iran. The US President sitting down, having tea, and being photographed making nice nice with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Khamenei will have a powerful effect on the dissidents. Iran has teetered in the brink of revolution for some time. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not deliver on his promises to reduce unemployment. Instead he isolated the country further and spent huge sums in his desire to produce nuclear weapons while unemployment skyrocketed and the freedoms were restricted.

Mousavi and the more moderate clerics don't have as vested an interest in attaining nuclear weapons as Ahmadinejad does. Perhaps they'd be willing to halt nuclear processing and allow inspectors unfettered access in exchange for lifting sanctions.

Ahmadinejad's not gonna negotiate, that much is a virtual given especially considering the recent protests. With Ahmadinejad in power it's only a mater of time before Iran has nuclear weapons (and Hamas and Hezbollah by default).

So the world has to decide whether we give Ahmadinejad legitimacy by sitting down with him and accepting that he's going to have nuclear weapons, or whether we stand behind the dissidents and hope for an alternate future.

********Edit*********
It seems that even religious leaders in Iran are condemning the election as illegitimate. Religious leaders in Qum (apparently one of the most influential religious groups in Iran)have condemned the election as invalid.

Khamenei, who according the Islamic custom is a agent of God, has claimed that Ahmadinejad's election was an act of divine providence and sanctioned by God. For these prominent clerics to split with Khamenei can only spell trouble for Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/wo...er=rss&emc=rss


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Last edited by monster_mom; July 5th, 2009 at 6:01 pm.
  #171  
Old July 5th, 2009, 7:12 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

I'll play nice. I deleted my response to Mom.


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  #172  
Old July 5th, 2009, 8:22 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Thanks! I'll delete mine reply to you.


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  #173  
Old July 5th, 2009, 8:26 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_mom View Post
With Ahmadinejad in power it's only a mater of time before Iran has nuclear weapons (and Hamas and Hezbollah by default).
Having nuclear weapons does not mean that the state's proxies have access. Otherwise half the world's terrorist groups would have been granted access by their Cold War sponsors.


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  #174  
Old July 12th, 2009, 1:52 am
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

My 60 year old aunt got bruised up in one of these rallies. She said it was totally worth it though.


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  #175  
Old July 12th, 2009, 2:20 am
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

I bet! Tell her we said "You go, girl!"


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  #176  
Old July 12th, 2009, 2:25 am
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ali View Post
My 60 year old aunt got bruised up in one of these rallies. She said it was totally worth it though.
I love that quote.


  #177  
Old July 17th, 2009, 9:50 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

The reaction of the West to the situation in Iran is one of the most hypocritical responses I have ever seen. With North Korea, they play nice nice and let China do this and that and now North Korea has fired missiles, and even wants to fire close to US soil. With China, they dont give a rat's tail whether the Chinese government kills 100 or even a 1000 muslim Uighurs. In Xinxiang (spelled wrong), the Chinese dont even allow the Uighurs to go to the Mosque, they dont give them good opportunity, and they continually try to dilute their culture by supporting mass migrations of the Han to Xinxiang. On the other hand, when it came to Tibet, there was a huge uproar and the whole media was buzzing and yelling. The presidents and prime ministers of the Western nations even made public statements in support of the Tibetan people and now they are in "solidarity" with the people who want to overthrow the government. How would the US feel if some other country supported a revolution to occur in the US?

The West, and importantly the US, UK, and Isreal caused the regime change in Iran in 1953 to overthrow the democratically elected Mossadegh, in order to replace him with the puppet Shah. The CIA and the Mossad are definitely involved in the turmoil in Iran. The explosive media coverage of the girl called Nadia who was killed in the Iranian protests makes me suspicious whether she was killed by the military in Iran or by secret operatives. That one Nadia who was killed was made into a hero overnight while the 12+ others who were killed weren't. It seemed as though this was a deliberate act to overblow the situation there and stir up more anger towards the Iranians regime. The media never tells the fact these so called peaceful protesters have destroyed over 700 buildings, injured 400 police personnel, burned 300 vehicles, and are causing unrest in the city. Is this a peaceful protest? If that happened in America they would be called terrorists.

President Bush authorized a secret operation to overthrow the regime in Iran, funding this covert operation with millions of dollars. Isreal even wants to bomb the nuclear facilities in Iran. Why didn't the US do that to North Korea? When it comes to Isreal, the US is powerless to say no to its demands. It's not a matter of being an ally, it's because the jews control a very large portion of the American economy and they can pull the plug at any time, it's huge leverage for Isreal. The US says that Iran is not complying to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while the US itself is in clear violation of it. This just goes to say that the one in power is the one who makes the rules and the decisions.

The only hindrance to the West's world dominance in the social, economic, and political fields are the muslims and the religion they believe in Islam. There is no doubt about this. That is why the West wants to take down the one theocratic government that isn't doing it's every bidding (saudi arabia's monarchy is allied with the US). I know a couple muslims who are at my school and they know this as well. The wars in the Middle East are not primarily for oil, but to take down the one group of people left in their path. Just look at the rest of the world. Christianity isnt much of a problem, the Jews in Isreal are actively trying to subdue the muslims, buddhists and hindus dont get in the way, and athiests are usually on the side of the west. Islam and it's followers are the only roadblock. Iran is just another step in their plan and the so called "rigged" elections are part of the plot to bring the Islamic Republic down and to institute a Western backed and controlled "democratic" government.



Last edited by Eto; July 18th, 2009 at 12:13 am.
  #178  
Old July 25th, 2009, 11:01 pm
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Re: Iran: presidential elections

Well, it's clearly back to business as usual in Iran, as Ahmedinejad has dismissed his vice president after pressure from Ayatollah Khameni because the VP was too tolerant. Links from Al-Jazeera and the BBC. I hope there's some Western condemnation or at least comment on this, now that we've seen how far "not meddling" got us.


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