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  #41  
Old August 15th, 2010, 9:09 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

At this point, I think Inception and The Kids Are All Right are Best Picture shoo-ins, with Toy Sstory 3 a "probably" and Shutter Island a "maybe." This is about the point where the columns and op-ed pieces appear on how weak a year in film it is and how little Oscar-caliber material there is, and then come the movies no one predicts 10 months earlier. So, what I'm saying is, while Hereafter and True Grit could very well be contenders, we'll see what surprises come along. The surest thing, as usual, is Pixar: if Toy Story 3 doesn't win Best Animated Feature, I'll pull a Werner Herzog and eat my shoe.


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  #42  
Old August 15th, 2010, 9:15 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by IenjoyAcidPops View Post
This is about the point where the columns and op-ed pieces appear on how weak a year in film it is and how little Oscar-caliber material there is
Yeah, you see this article?

The Worst Movie Year Ever?

That guy neglects to really mention though that it's also produced one of the best films of the past 10 years, so it can't be THE worst.
And with DH and some of these others to come, if they live up to expectations by the end of the year I myself might be calling it the best!


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  #43  
Old August 15th, 2010, 9:30 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Yeah, you see this article?

The Worst Movie Year Ever?
That's the one I was thinking of most when I wrote that. Here's a good article from IFC countering that column in particular.


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  #44  
Old August 15th, 2010, 10:54 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Watched the trailers for Love and Other Drugs, The American, and The Next Three Days earlier...all look great.
However, I'm now doubting whether they will be Oscar films. The first looks much more rom-com then I think people were expecting and the other two might be too action oriented.
The trailer for "The American" got me interested, the film and its cinematography looks very good. "Love and Other Drugs" looks like an average rom-com if you ask me, and "The Next Three Days" like a standard action film, but they may turn out to be great films of course. However, I don't see the Academy voting for any of them if they are typical genre films.


  #45  
Old August 15th, 2010, 10:57 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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The trailer for "The American" got me interested, the film and its cinematography looks very good. "Love and Other Drugs" looks like an average rom-com if you ask me, and "The Next Three Days" like a standard action film, but they may turn out to be great films of course. However, I don't see the Academy voting for any of them if they are typical genre films.
With Jake Gyllenhall and Anne Hathaway I think Love and Other Drugs will be better then average rom-com. Same goes for The Next Three Days being standard action...it's got Russell Crowe AND Liam Neeson (one of the most under-rated actors in my book) in it for God sakes Not to mention the director is a previous Oscar winner. So I'm curious, your thoughts on The Town and have you seen Affleck's first film?

These are my thoughts-

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Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post

The Town looks great. I had this one down on my list of anticipated films for 2010 long ago...before I'd seen Gone Baby Gone (Ben Affleck's directorial debut) and now I've seen that I'm looking forward to this even more. I'm especially interested in seeing more of Jeremy Renner...was very impressed with his performance in Hurt Locker.


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  #46  
Old August 15th, 2010, 6:46 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

A left-field role generating a bit of buzz is Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom although its could depend on the movie getting out of the arthouse circuit.


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  #47  
Old August 18th, 2010, 1:42 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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And no trailers have yet been released for the following...

Black Swan (Dec. 1st)
Scratch that, just surfaced yesterday, here it is- http://www.traileraddict.com/trailer/black-swan/trailer

I dunno if it's an Oscar contender but reports say Natalie Portman has never been better and she's had a lot of great performances go unnoticed...would like to see this be her year. The trailer shows a film that promises to be erm a little strange, but I'm intrigued.
I'll tell you one thing. The trailer further supports the Mullholland Dr. vibe about this film that I've mentioned, which I think is great...


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  #48  
Old September 20th, 2010, 1:35 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

So the fall movie season is just around the corner, but recall that by this time last year we'd already seen the Best Pic winner...could the same be true this year? Probably not, unless Inception can actually win, which I don't think is likely...though it has probably locked a nom.

So what's left?

Well, a couple strong contenders (The Tree of Life and The Conspirator) have been delayed until 2011 so the field has been thinned a bit. Now I doubt Wall Street 2 is gonna repeat so let's move on to October. Far as I can tell (barring any surprises) these contenders remain...

October

The Social Network (a few months ago I would have said no way, but the buzz is great...and afterall it's directed by David Fincher)
Secretariat
Conviction
The Company Men
Hereafter (early reviews from film festivals were really mixed, but we can never count out Eastwood)

November

127 Hours (I never gave this one much thought before, but it's getting insane buzz and the director just won 2 years ago)
Fair Game
Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (yes, it's a dark horse...but in a so far pretty weak year and with 10 slots now I think it's possible)
The Next Three Days
Love and Other Drugs

December

Black Swan
The Fighter
Somewhere
True Grit
Blue Valentine

Are there any I've overlooked?

Oh, and a couple things to note. A few sites are saying that with it's strong reception The Town has joined the race...and uh Shutter Island isn't out yet. In fact its distributor is making an awards push but to make a sports analogy, it's a .500 team competing for a shot at the last playoff spot, but has next to no shot of actually winning if they get to the playoffs. And for those that have already been released, here's a cool chart that compares Broadcast Film Critic Association, Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic, and IMDB scores. Take from this what you will...

The Year So Far:    


    



From word around the web it sounds like Toy Story 3, Inception, The Kids Are Alright, and Winter's Bone are most likely in...leaving 6 more slots to be vied for by the 15 listed above...in addition to the dark horses (ie The Town, Shutter Island, Prophet, etc) on that chart.

Note: The Prophet is a long-shot only because it's a foreign film and if I'm not mistaken only a few have ever been nominated for Best Pic.


EDIT: I forgot The King's Speech! Looks like it has a limited release in Nov but for some reason isn't listed on the 2010 list on Wiki

Anyways, from what I've read it sounds like a major contender...with one hell of a British cast (Firth, Bonham Carter, Pearce, Gambon, etc)


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  #49  
Old September 20th, 2010, 2:19 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Note: The Prophet is a long-shot only because it's a foreign film and if I'm not mistaken only a few have ever been nominated for Best Pic.
I'm almost certain A Prophet is ineligible, as it was nominated for Best Foreign Film last year.


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  #50  
Old September 20th, 2010, 2:23 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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I'm almost certain A Prophet is ineligible, as it was nominated for Best Foreign Film last year.
Oh, was it? That's weird. I think it's just being released here in the US this year...but I wonder why some sites are still talking about it in regards to awards.


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  #51  
Old September 20th, 2010, 2:34 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Oh, was it? That's weird. I think it's just being released here in the US this year...but I wonder why some sites are still talking about it in regards to awards.
Because of that, I guess, but foreign language features are submitted by their native country, and France submitted A Prophet last year and received a nomination, so we will not see it again this year.


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  #52  
Old September 20th, 2010, 3:53 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

What about Never Let Me Go? I haven't seen the movie, but I've read the book, which tells the kind of story that may get a Best Adapted Screenplay award. The reviews of the movie are mixed, but in general they say that her acting may earn Carey Mulligan another Oscar nomination.



Last edited by FleurduJardin; September 20th, 2010 at 5:22 am. Reason: Replaced "story" with "movie" (italicized)
  #53  
Old September 20th, 2010, 3:57 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by FleurduJardin View Post
What about Never Let Me Go? I haven't seen the movie, but I've read the book, which tells the kind of story that may get a Best Adapted Screenplay award. The reviews of the story are mixed, but in general they say that her acting may earn Carey Mulligan another Oscar nomination.
Well, it certainly has the prestige factor, and the marketing makes no secret of that - all "Oscar nominee" this and "Greatest Novel of the Decade" that. Whether there'll be enough buzz around it to drive it through to serious Oscar nods I don't know.


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  #54  
Old September 20th, 2010, 4:58 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

DH will win oscars cuz its the last one like ROTK thell wanan give dh1 the oscars though cuz it will be more emaitonal than dh2


  #55  
Old September 20th, 2010, 5:29 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by IenjoyAcidPops View Post
Well, it certainly has the prestige factor, and the marketing makes no secret of that - all "Oscar nominee" this and "Greatest Novel of the Decade" that. Whether there'll be enough buzz around it to drive it through to serious Oscar nods I don't know.
Greatest novel of the decade? Geez, Louise, I'd give it "Most depressing novel of the decade"!!! I'm not going to see the movie because I find the story so horribly depressing. That kind of imagination gives me the shivers.

But I'd be very interested to know people who have seen it's opinions. It's a hard story to put on screen. Especially as Kazuo Ishiguro said he liked to write "unfilmable stories". I don't know whether there will be "enough buzz around it to drive it through to serious Oscar nods" - time will tell.

In case some of you hadn't been aware of it, the author is the same one who wrote "The Remains of the Day" - which I haven't seen either, but I know it was critically acclaimed. Don't remember whether it got any Oscar nominations, though.


  #56  
Old September 20th, 2010, 5:38 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

Of all the films I've seen this year, the only ones I think deserve awards would be Inception (actor leading, director, score, screenplay original, cinematography), Shutter Island (actor leading, cinematography), and Eclipse (cinematography).


  #57  
Old September 20th, 2010, 5:39 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Yeah, you see this article?

The Worst Movie Year Ever?

That guy neglects to really mention though that it's also produced one of the best films of the past 10 years, so it can't be THE worst.
And with DH and some of these others to come, if they live up to expectations by the end of the year I myself might be calling it the best!
Articles like this are pretty tiresome. Although some great films were made in the past an awful lot of bilge was produced. Probably more because the old system of double-features meant that there was a greater demand for unremarkable films to fill in the bottom half of the bill.


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  #58  
Old September 20th, 2010, 5:54 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by FleurduJardin View Post
What about Never Let Me Go? I haven't seen the movie, but I've read the book, which tells the kind of story that may get a Best Adapted Screenplay award. The reviews of the movie are mixed, but in general they say that her acting may earn Carey Mulligan another Oscar nomination.
Hasn't that already been released? But yeah, it could have a shot...probably another dark horse though. I haven't heard much about it.
If anything it sounds more like an acting feature (like say Crazy Heart last year) then a best picture film, but I could very well be wrong.

EDIT: Nevermind, I think it's a def no to BP...if you look at that chart it's below Shutter Island even. Seems the reviews were too lukewarm.

P.S. Concerning the BFCA scores, this is an interesting article- http://www.awardsdaily.com/2010/09/b...ver-let-me-go/


Quote:
Originally Posted by FleurduJardin View Post
Greatest novel of the decade? Geez, Louise, I'd give it "Most depressing novel of the decade"!!! I'm not going to see the movie because I find the story so horribly depressing.
Oh, really? Hmm, this is an issue surrounding Blue Valentine too I hear. Apparently the lead acting (Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams) is incredible, but the film is super depressing and nobody is sure how that will sit with the Academy.


EDIT: I just remembered a few titles I forgot to mention; Another Year and Rabbit Hole...though the latter doesn't appear to have a release date yet. Also, Peter Weir's The Way Back, originally predicted to be a front-runner but it looks like they won't release in time for this year.


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  #59  
Old September 20th, 2010, 8:38 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Oh, was it? That's weird. I think it's just being released here in the US this year...but I wonder why some sites are still talking about it in regards to awards.
Basically what IEAP said. Foreign submissions are made halfway through the year, but unfortunately, most of the films don't even hit the US market till the following year, so therein lies the confusion. Foreign films are always tricky at the Oscars, so perhaps it's best not to dwell on them too much and let them pretend they're being inclusive. However, I would say the foreign film to watch this year is I Am Love with Tilda Swinton and you could probably find an art house cinema still showing it. If a foreign film has any chance at a best pic nom, it's this one.



Last edited by Rastaban43; September 20th, 2010 at 8:43 am.
  #60  
Old September 20th, 2010, 12:05 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

DH1 will win best picture


 
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