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Oscars 2011
Is it too early for predictions?
![]() http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article...-complete-list http://www.thefilmexperience.net/Awards/2010/tally.html http://www.indiewire.com/article/for...e_2011_oscars/ http://www.oscarfrenzy.com/commentar...-a-first-look/ Browsing through those lists I think these are the "heavy hitters" Biutiful (directed by: Alejandro González Iñárritu, starring: Javier Bardem) Black Swan (directed by: Darren Aronofsky, starring: Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, Winona Ryder) Hereafter (directed by: Clint Eastwood, starring: Matt Damon) Inception (directed by: Chris Nolan, starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Marion Cotillard, Ellen Page, Ken Watanabe, Michael Caine) Love and Other Drugs (directed by: Edward Zwick, starring: Jake Gyllenhall, Ann Hathaway) Shutter Island (directed by: Martin Scorcese, starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Mark Ruffalo, Ben Kingsley, Michelle Williams) The Tree of Life (directed by: Terrence Malick, starring: Brad Pitt, Sean Penn) True Grit (directed by: Joel and Ethan Coen, starring: Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon, Josh Brolin) The Next Three Days (directed by: Paul Haggis, starring: Russell Crowe, Elizabeth Banks, Liam Neeson) The Way Back (directed by: Peter Weir, starring: Colin Farrell, Ed Harris) You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger (directed by: Woody Allen, starring: Josh Brolin, Anthony Hopkins, Naomi Watts) However, Aronofsky has never been recognized by the Academy and (while I loved it) I don't think Scorcese's latest will garner more then technical nods, if anything. And it should be well known by now I dislike most of the Coens work, but the cast is too great to ignore ![]() Ok, so how about some other films with potential...maybe these? 127 Hours (directed by: Danny Boyle, starring: James Franco) The Adjustment Bureau (starring: Matt Damon, Emily Blunt) The American (starring: George Clooney) Another Year (directed by: Mike Leigh, starring: Jim Broadbent, Imelda Staunton) The Conspirator (directed by: Robert Redford, starring: James McAvoy, Robin Wright Penn, Evan Rachel Wood) The Debt (directed by: John Madden, starring: Sam Worthington, Helen Mirren) Fair Game (directed by: Doug Liman, starring: Naomi Watts, Sean Penn) The Fighter (starring: Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, Amy Adams) The King's Speech (starring: Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce, Michael Gambon, Timothy Spall) London Blvd. (starring: Colin Farrel, Keira Knightley, David Thewlis) The Ghost Writer (directed by: Roman Polanski, starring: Pierce Brosnan, Ewan McGregor) Knockout (directed by: Steven Soderbergh, starring: Ewan McGregor, Dennis Quid, Michael Douglas) Never Let Me Go (starring: Keira Knightley, Carey Mulligan) Rabit Hole (starring: Aaron Eckhart, Nicole Kidman) Rum Diary (starring: Johnny Depp, Amber Heard) Somewhere (directed by: Sofia Coppola) The Town (directed by: Ben Affleck, starring: Ben Affleck, Jeremy Renner, Blake Lively) Now I've noticed a lot of places are listing Toy Story 3 but I think I'm gonna pass on that one...a 2nd sequel in an animation series deserving of Best Picture consideration? Give me a break. I like the original as much as anyone but now they are just exploiting in. Let's nominate Shrek 4 while we're at it, LOL. Oh, and this Facebook movie is another that has me puzzled. Sure it's being directed by David Fincher, but I fail to see how it will be more then just laughable, let alone Oscar worthy. ![]() ![]()
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Re: Oscars 2011
What's the pattern with the people in the brackets in the OP? Most of them are actors, and only some include possible directors (I haven't checked them all myself). :/ Usually just the director is credited with the film, not the actors.
But anyway, to the actual topic, regarding Aronofsky and recognition by the Academy, one must remember that Martin Scorsese's first and only Oscar was for The Departed. They normally come around after long periods of being berated with awesome. ![]() I personally am a huge fan of the Coens, so they'll get the usual nods, but we won't know until the film is released whether or not their film will go all the way. I also think Toy Story 3 has a fighting chance, given the quality of Pixar films in general - it seems they can do no wrong at this point (even though I'm a bit sour about Up winning over The Princess and the Frog). I don't think you're really taking into consideration the idea of a film about Facebook. It's not a lightweight film about social networking. It's about creating a business out of nothing into a multi-billion-dollar empire. It's not the story of becoming a fan or joining groups. It's the story of a man who has had a phenomenal impact on people's day to day lives and interactions with people. Really, to think of it as a film about Facebook is very limiting - it's about Mark Zuckerberg and his creation of an empire. Also, it's script has been reviewed very well and in detail here if you want to check it out. I really do hope the Academy continues on it's line of taking in films from all callings in the BP nominations, however I'd like to see some foreign films in there if animated films are given a go. Films shouldn't be excluded from the top prize just because they're in a different language. *ahem* The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is the best film released thus far this year *ahem*
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Re: Oscars 2011
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Last edited by Noldus; May 19th, 2010 at 5:21 pm. |
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![]() Here's all your directors listed in the OP Alejandro González Iñárritu Darren Aronofsky Clint Eastwood Chris Nolan Edward Zwick Martin Scorcese Terrence Malick Joel and Ethan Coen Peter Weir Woody Allen Danny Boyle Mike Leigh Robert Redford John Madden Doug Liman Roman Polanski Paul Haggis Steven Soderbergh Sofia Coppola Ben Affleck (directing and acting) Quote:
Still, I'm looking forward to Black Swan...if only because Natalie Portman is in it. I've yet to see any Aronofsky films, but this one appears to have a Mullholland Dr. vibe, which I think is a good sign cause while Lynch's film was way over my head, I really enjoyed it nonetheless. Quote:
![]() For now I see this as perhaps being in contention for a screenwriting nod but not Best Picture ![]() Just for the record, these are my 10 Best Picture nomination predictions and why... Hereafter (Clint Eastwood has been shut out of the Oscars for 3 years now, but he's still one of the highest profile directors so yeah...) The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick, Brad Pitt, and Sean Penn...'nuff said) The Way Back (Peter Weir has 6 Oscar noms under his belt, seems like he's due) Inception (I think I've already made this one clear ![]() Love and other Drugs (great director, sounds like an interesting story, and has some nice star power) True Grit (the Coens success with the Academy is hard to ignore as well as those big name actors previously mentioned) The Next Three Days (the director Paul Haggis is a 2 time Oscar winner and screenplay nominee and he's got a terrific cast behind him) And the other 3 are perhaps the bigger question marks cause the directors are relative unknowns...I'm going off the actors alone here- The King’s Speech (starring: Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce, Michael Gambon, Timothy Spall) The Fighter (starring: Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, and Amy Adams) London Boulevard (starring: Colin Farrell, Keira Knightley, and David Thewlis) I think it would be kinda fun if you guys make your predictions too and then we see who guessed the most correctly come next year. ![]()
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Confessions of a Dance Addict Dancing at the Movies West Coast Swing! Oversized image removed by staff ![]() ![]() Last edited by lcbaseball22; May 19th, 2010 at 5:14 pm. |
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Re: Oscars 2011
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Last edited by Rastaban43; May 20th, 2010 at 4:38 am. |
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One weird example of Best Picture/Best Foreign Film anomalies is the Ingmar Bergman classic (and one of my favourite films) Cries and Whispers. It was nominated for the Best Picture category as a Swedish film, but for some reason was not nominated at all in the Best Foreign Film category (that year the prize going to Day For Night, a french film). There's probably a weird technicality behind this, like it not being Sweden's "official" submission, but it's still rather silly. If it's good enough to earn a BP nomination, it should have been honoured in it's own category. Up was. Quote:
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Last edited by Rastaban43; May 20th, 2010 at 10:42 am. |
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However, I disagree on the "American" cinema sentiment - any film in the english language is considered, including British, Canadian, Australian and New Zealander films. I'm probably more aware of that aspect than you are, but still, the Academy has not been American for a very long time. Also, you must remember that films in Native American Indian languages are classified in the 'foreign language' category and are released in the USA first. I don't know about America, but here in Australia there is lots of publicity for Aboriginal films, such as the recent gem Samson and Delilah. It would be interesting to see how they select all these films - I didn't know there was a rigamarole for every category, though I guess I should have after The Dark Knight's score scandal.
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Re: Oscars 2011
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![]() I suppose they all have to start somewhere though. Maybe this will be Eisenberg's break through role and he'll garner an acting nom... ![]() Oh, and as to some of the other awards besides BP, I don't have time to delve into them really deep right now but I'm thinking Leonardo DiCaprio could be nominated for Best Actor whether it's Shutter Island or Inception. He may have the same thing going on as he did in '06 with Blood Diamond and The Departed. The funny thing was, as I saw noted somewhere else, everyone was expecting the acting nod to come for The Departed since it was a Best Picture front-runner (and ultimately winner) and garnered all those other nods...but instead he got it for Blood Diamond. Hmm, I wonder what's gonna happen this time given his Inception performance is just as great as Shutter Island And I fully expect Wally Pfister to be nominated for his fourth straight cinematography award...and he's clearly due to win, BUT we know that Terrence Malick's films always put forth extraordinary cinematography if nothing else so Pfister is gonna have some really stiff competition I would expect from Tree of Life's DP. I'd also like to see Eduardo Serra nominated for DH1, but we'll have to see on that...
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Confessions of a Dance Addict Dancing at the Movies West Coast Swing! Oversized image removed by staff ![]() ![]() Last edited by lcbaseball22; September 27th, 2010 at 4:23 am. |
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Re: Oscars 2011
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There are a small handful of English, Australian, Canadian and other English-speaking films that do well in the American market each year, but I would hardly think those films consistently represent the best in film (or perhaps a better phrase would be the full range of film) of each year in their respective countries. For example, I highly doubt many people would consider "Slumdog Millionaire" the quintessential English film. What we do see is some of the best in American film (and a much wider range of it) with bits and pieces of world cinema thrown in that American audiences have been or would be able to appreciate. The Oscars aren't the be all and end all of film awards. Yes, a lot of people living outside the United States watch it and enjoy making predictions, and there will always be a handful of non-American films at the Oscars (and yes, foreign films can be nominated for the Best Picture category too), but the Oscars are just as much a celebration of American filmmaking as they are a celebration of American film appreciation. I mean, the Academy would probably want the whole world to think they're the greatest indication of quality filmmaking, and perhaps it's true it's one of the few somewhat universal indicators of quality, but the simple fact it does exclude foreign cinema makes it clear it is not. We're all too happy to complain about the Academy's exclusion of foreign cinema. Why are we defending them as anything but an American institution? |
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Re: Oscars 2011
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![]() To me the fact they've given foreign films their own category says enough. As such, I don't see how anyone can say they've been excluded. It's an American award ceremony so yes, naturally there will be some bias (same as with the Grammy's or any other US award show)...but it seems like they give foreign films more then enough due if you ask me ![]() I'd rather not turn this into an America vs. The Rest of the World debate so I'll leave it at that... ![]() Hey, how 'bout we get back to predictions? I'm curious to see what other people think and then we'll have something to look back at come next year when the nominees are announced and see who was right! ![]()
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Re: Oscars 2011
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But I'm game for this discussion, I suppose, though it'll be more interesting as the year goes on and we've seen more films. A discussion about films that haven't even come out yet (for example, Inception), is too much based on hype, but I guess there's no harm in making a few predictions, hehe. From the films I've seen so far this year, there are a few standouts. Alice in Wonderland won't get much attention, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was nominated for Art Direction. How to Train Your Dragon is one of the best animated films I've seen in a few years, so I'm sure it'll get at least a nomination. Greenberg was a surprisingly good screenplay, but it wasn't much else so I doubt it'll be noticed. I am Love might be the foreign film to watch this year. Tilda Swinton did an amazing job. The direction and editing were fantastic. I can see it being a strong contender in a number of other categories if only it weren't Italian, lol, but it is getting an early release, so who knows. Chloe might see a nomination for Julianne Moore, but it was a rather mediocre film so that's a real stretch. Fish Tank was really excellent, as was Animal Kingdom. Both of those non-American films could potentially get a screenplay nomination at the very least and perhaps even quite a few more. The Art of the Steal was a great documentary, but Exit Through the Gift Shop has more appeal despite it sort of failing as a really great film. I still have yet to see a really standout male actor, but I thought Paul Bettany did a great job in Creation. I really hesitate to go further than that. It's really just too early to talk about it in great depth, lol. It seems like the biggest Oscar contenders are the films that are released in November and December, so if anything, perhaps a late release date is a good standard for prediction. :P Last edited by Rastaban43; May 22nd, 2010 at 5:37 am. |
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Re: Oscars 2011
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![]() You see, I was just thinking that everyone is on a level playing field if we do it beforehand...if you wait until later in the year some will have seen the films and some won't have. At this point I don't believe I've heard of any films released yet that could make a strong showing come awards time...at least not for Best Picture, Best Director, etc. A couple films maybe like Iron-Man 2 and Shutter Island that could make a case for technical awards and perhaps Leo's performance will still be remembered next fall, but it came out awfully early in the year
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Re: Oscars 2011
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And I was actually glad he got the nomination for Blood Diamond and not The Departed - I prefer the latter film overall, but BD was fan-freaking-tastic to the nth degree, and his performance was incredible! Most people overdo Afrikaner accents or Afrikaner's political positions, but he was real and totally raw. Simply wonderful. Quote:
But we need to remember Emmanuel Lubezki's reputation here. Not only is he working under Malick, but he's got several other Oscar noms under his belt, is also "due" a win, and is widely well-regarded by the community. I'd pick him over Pfister in this match. He's been in the game longer. Quote:
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I thought Blood Diamond looked amazing. But how/why is Delbonnel more admired then Serra? ![]() EDIT: Oh, Roger Deakins (True Grit) Wow, talk about someone who's due...that dude has EIGHT previous nominations without a win! ![]() Also, I thought the cinematography for Shutter Island was fantastic and the DP for that film has 2 wins and numerous other nominations so he obviously can't be left out of the discussion. I suspect he could receive another nom at least.
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Confessions of a Dance Addict Dancing at the Movies West Coast Swing! Oversized image removed by staff ![]() ![]() Last edited by lcbaseball22; May 21st, 2010 at 1:18 pm. |
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Re: Oscars 2011
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And I always love Richardson's work (it was him who did Shutter Island if my memory serves) - another nom for him would be great.
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Re: Oscars 2011
Clooney got his oscar for Syriana. So althought he might have somewhat of a pretty boy persona for some people he has his moments. He also got a director and writing nod for Good night and good luck, which qualifies for me as being noticed.
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![]() You don't like Tom Hank's and Morgan Freeman though?! To me they would fall under the definition of "super fantastic". They are certainly 2 of my favorite actors and very deserving of all the recognition if you ask me. But I like Leo Depp, Pitt, and Clooney quite a lot too and it would be nice to see them win sometime soon. BTW, forgot to list it in the OP but Depp has a movie coming out called The Rum Diary. Quote:
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Re: Oscars 2011
With ten nominations, despite the delay, like Gangs of New York, Shutter Island will likely garner more nominations than just on the technical side. Scorsese may not win a best Director nom again for this one (though had it came out last year, considering it would have been one of the best directed films, a nom would have been plausible and it still is this year, but Paramount still messed it's rightful chances up). Of course, we haven't seen Inception, but based off what we have seen, Leo's performance does not look as complex or textured as his in Shutter Island. He could get nominated for Inception instead (though this will likely cause a stink amongst bloggers seeing as his performance in Shutter Island is a favorite and pick for a deserved nom), like he did with Blood Diamond (also, Leo's performance is far better in The Departed... much more nuanced, anxious and fitting to the character).
I'm still sour of Aronofsky not getting nominated for The Wrestler. While The Dark Knight was my #1 film of '08, it's getting snubbed was almost forgivable next to The Wrestler's snub, especially given it's status at that time of being the second highest grossing film of all time. Aronofsky deserved a nom for Best Director, and the film should have been nominated for Best Picture and won over Slumdog Millionaire (of those nominees, Button deserved it the most, but The Wrestler deserved it over that had it been nominated). I don't want to get off track and getting into the history of oscar's, but I'm relating it to chances with this years Oscar run. This might be Aronofsky's year, the story is intriguing and sounds great, and it's got a stellar cast. The Coen's will likely get another nomination as well as their film, and with their return to western/drama, it might get extra brownie points for No Country For Old Men. It's too early to say who will be the noms though, as we're just now getting into the summer movie season and as for what's shaping up in the fall/winter movie season, we haven't really been teased with yet. |
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