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Afghanistan: its present and future



 
 
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  #61  
Old September 17th, 2008, 5:31 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
I think that Discordia was quite right. Once you leave the chances that there will be anything even remotely reminiscent of 'a democracy and an ally to Western nations' are so minimal that counting on them would be rather reckless.
I guess the counter to that is that we may not leave in the near future. Afghanistan borders Russia, has a shared concern for any attempt by Russia to expand it's boundries to neighboring states and for all intents and purposes, the country gets a pretty solid infusion of funds just by housing U.S. and coalition forces domesticly.

I would refer back to the Germany example. The U.S. doesn't have any undue influence on German domestic policy or foreign policy as we have seen, despite the numerous bases in Germany. When the offer to abandon them has been made, it has been refused as those installations actually benifit local economy pretty significantly. The same may end up to be true in Afghanistan if we can forge more comfortable ties with the local communities and avoid increasingly bad media and propaganda that makes our presence less tollerated, despite the advantages that follow with it.

If we do establish long term bases, industrial interests would have more security to take advantage of the depressed local economy and limited restrictions and more motivation to build and hire. It isn't a fast and easy process, but the alternative is letting the same 200+ years of history keep repeating itself, with increasingly better weapons and more ambitous plans, IMO.


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  #62  
Old October 4th, 2008, 10:24 am
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

UK Envoy: Need an 'Acceptable Afghan Dictator'

Anyone who thinks they can win the war in Afghanistan is fooling themselves.


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  #63  
Old October 6th, 2008, 1:21 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Well, the deaprting British commander certainly thinks that a military victory is: “neither feasible nor supportable”.

We can't defeat Taleban, says Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith


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  #64  
Old November 6th, 2008, 6:50 pm
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Re: The Bush Administration, v.4

U.S. Airstrike Reported to Hit Afghan Wedding killed 40 civilians

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/06/wo...hp&oref=slogin

More...


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  #65  
Old November 6th, 2008, 6:53 pm
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Re: The Bush Administration, v.4



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  #66  
Old November 12th, 2008, 7:08 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Afghan Insurgency Stronger Than Ever

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/...tag=topStories

Sarcastically, two famous words by Bush on 2003 on the deck of USS Abraham Lincoln come to mind.


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  #67  
Old November 12th, 2008, 7:14 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ali View Post
Sarcastically, two famous words by Bush on 2003 on the deck of USS Abraham Lincoln come to mind.
Not sure if you've seen the link, but Bush said in an interview last night that he regrets that banner. I posted it over in the Bush admin.


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  #68  
Old November 12th, 2008, 7:48 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ali View Post
Afghan Insurgency Stronger Than Ever

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/...tag=topStories

Sarcastically, two famous words by Bush on 2003 on the deck of USS Abraham Lincoln come to mind.
Well, if Mr. Obama keeps his word this will change soon.


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  #69  
Old December 9th, 2008, 3:00 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Few days ago I read in the paper that insurgents are now permanently covering over 70% of Afganistan.
This growth of armed resistance points to a continuous increase in dissatisfaction with USA/NATO-imposed "democracy". Strangely the people don't seem to WANT an occupying force on their land, so the longer the forces stay in Afghanistan, the more resistance will grow. When people lose their house or family members to the "War on Terror", you can expect them to feel compelled to fight back. I personally think this is very understandable and I doubt many Americans will say they wouldn't do the same if ever the USA is succesfully invaded.
Consequently, I don't think most insurgents are fighting out of religious zeal, or to reinstall Taliban regime. I think for most, the reason is self-determination without the interference of foreign powers, and withdrawal of the troops. Taliban is simply the organisation that offers these people the chance to fight back in a coordinated fashion.

Democracy can not be imposed from above, by a foreign force using military might. Democracy has to come from the people themselves. If the average Afghan is grateful for the Karzai-regime you'd think they’d stop fighting. People didn't want Taliban, but they don't want a government that serves the interests of the big capital more than the well-being of its own people, either.

America itself turned from a mere colony, exploited for its resources, to the most powerful bourgeois-democratic nation on earth through exactly the process of revolutionary struggle as well. First against English imperialism, and then to unite the North and the South. Not because some other country came to replace the government, and this will not happen in Afghanistan, either.

If Obama keeps his promise, as Pensieve Master says, it will simply take a lot more victims on all sides (including civilian) before the resistance wins as it will only grow faster with every extra pair of Western boots on their land.

All troops must be withdrawn now. All Western interference in the Middle East is fuel on the flames and will only elicit more terrorist attacks, and strengthens the appeal of groups that oppose imperialism. Allied bombings and shelling are still causing civilian victims, most women still wear burqas, and the government has never been so impopular. At the home front, perhaps not in the US yet but definitely in Europe, more and more people start to realise that Western presence there is only making matters worse for everybody. We can no longer fool ourselves that we are bringing them freedom, peace and prosperity.
If democracy is where Afghanistan is headed it's not through occupation and it's not through Karzai. If the Taliban reclaims power, the people will eventually deal with it themselves. That’s how it has been done in 18th-19th century America, 18th century France and in 1917 in Russia as well as in 80s-90s Poland, Czech republic and Hungary. The people rising up for more democracy "from below up", and reaching it.


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Last edited by Vladimir_Lupin; December 9th, 2008 at 3:11 pm. Reason: suddenly had some more to say
  #70  
Old February 3rd, 2009, 10:58 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

From NPR:

NPRCIA-directed airstrikes against al-Qaida leaders and facilities in Pakistan over the past six to nine months have been so successful, according to senior U.S. officials, that it is now possible to foresee a "complete al-Qaida defeat" in the mountainous region along the border with Afghanistan.

The officials say the terrorist network's leadership cadre has been "decimated," with up to a dozen senior and midlevel operatives killed as a result of the strikes and the remaining leaders reeling from the repeated attacks.


Yes, it's waaaaaaay too soon to declare victory, but this is good news.


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  #71  
Old March 9th, 2009, 3:58 am
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

A very strange story was reported on ABC last week that escaped notice from many.

Some background.
A couple of weeks ago President Obama went to Camp Lejeune to announce his new strategy of drawing troops down in Iraq and redeploying troops scheduled to Iraq to Afghanistan. One of the Brigade's being re-deployed from Iraq to Afghanistan was the 5th Stryker Brigade. This is a big deal because the Stryker Brigade spent over 10 months training and preparing for their deployment to Iraq, including extensive lessons in Arabic, which isn't spoken in Afghanistan. But if Stryker was needed in Afghanistan more than in Iraq, then they needed to go to Afghanistan, so no biggie.

Here's a link to an official news announcement of the re-deployment:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...4-2703,00.html

And here's a link to the DoD announcement stating that the 5th Stryker Brigade would be included in the redeployment:

http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/...eleaseid=12493

Now for the weird part...

All of which makes this from ABC a bit more telling (especially in lieu of the multiple re-writes the story went through).....

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalra...troop-dra.html

ABCEditor's Note: Over the weekend, additional information led us to rework this article. We have restored the original wording as additional reporting reconfirms the information posted Friday night.

Gen. Odierno will maintain a two-Stryker Brigade presence through the rest of this year even though a replacement Stryker Brigade had been redirected to Afghansitan [sic]. The Pentagon's announcement Monday that the 4th Stryker BCT, 2nd Infantry Division will head to Iraq, which means both brigades currently in Iraq will be replaced by Stryker Brigades. In shorthand, the 4th SBCT/2nd ID will replace the 1st SBCT/25th ID and the 3rd SBCT/2nd ID will the 56th National Guard Stryker Brigade.


There are currently 2 Stryker Brigades in Iraq. Both are scheduled to be replaced by the 5th and 3rd Stryker Brigades. The 5th and 3rd Stryker Brigades have been training and preparing for that mission to Iraq for a number of months, including local language training.

In Feb 2009, President Obama announced that he was drawing down troops from Iraq by re-deploying their replacements to Afghanistan. The 5th Stryker Brigade, scheduled to got to Iraq was included in that redeployment. Everyone cheers - "Woo Hoo ! we're bring the troops home from Iraq".

But are we?

Just last week, we learned that a new Stryker Brigade (the 4th) will be sent to Iraq in place of the 5th which is being sent to Afghanistan. This deployment will be several months ahead of schedule so that sufficient troop level are maintained in Iraq.

So that troop draw down in Iraq announced at Ft Lejeune with such fanfare. Not gonna happen. Kinda feels like that trick where the guy puts a pebble under a cup then shuffles the cups around and you have to guess which cup the pebble is under.......


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Last edited by monster_mom; March 9th, 2009 at 4:10 am.
  #72  
Old March 9th, 2009, 6:44 am
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

The Iraq thread is here.


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  #73  
Old March 9th, 2009, 7:36 am
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Interesting comment by David Kilcullen (a former Australian army officer and peacekeeper who has served in every theatre in the war on terror since 9/11, as a special adviser to Condoleezza Rice, to General David Petraeus, and the US State Department) who contends the coalition is making the same mistake as was made in Vietnam; going in to "pacify" an area before withdrawing and allowing the area to revert to hostile control.

"We have adopted a policy of fighting the bad guys rather than protecting the population, which has led us to be moving and mobile in Afghan valleys, which has its own problems.

"When you move into a village or a valley in Afghanistan it's extremely difficult when you are moving to figure out who you are dealing with...The better way to do it, and the way that we would always seek to do it if we have enough troops is don't be the one moving into the valley, be living in the valley or the village with the villagers. And in parts in the east of Afghanistan, for example, in Kunar province, or Nangar province, we have had a lot of success by having outposts in the villages and valleys who are living with people, side by side. You do end up fighting the Taliban, but what happens is it's the Taliban moving, not you, so they're the ones moving into the environment, you are in the compound with the villagers and you have a much better result."

Dateline


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  #74  
Old March 9th, 2009, 3:58 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
The Iraq thread is here.
See, I had a hard time sorting out where to put this. Is it an Iraq thing or an Afgahnistan thing or an Obama thing??? I couldn't figure it out cause it seems to apply to all three. Since the intent of the original order was to send reinforcements to Afghanistan to improve conditions there, I figured it belonged there. I'll put it in Iraq if that's where you think it needs to be!


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  #75  
Old March 27th, 2009, 2:41 am
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Kilcullen popped up again on the 7.30 Report. Based on current assessments international forces will have to stay in Afghanistan for at least 10 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Kilcullen
Three years since 2005 we've see about a 500 per cent increase in violence in Afghanistan. In the same timeframe, the area that's affected by the insurgency has more than doubled. The counter narcotics campaign has, I would say, stalled...And we've also seen a drop in support for both the international presence and the Karzai government of 20 or 30 percentage points in that time frame. So I think overall we'd have to say it's not going well.


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  #76  
Old April 4th, 2009, 12:52 am
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

The latest from the "democracy" the West has imposed on Afghanistan.

"Critics say the law limits the rights of women from the Shia minority and authorises rape within marriage."

BBC

Nope, things haven't changed much at all.

"Western politicians focus on improving conditions for women and children - and the conservative Afghan culture keeps hitting back. Schools are built to educate girls - and then torched to the ground. Aid programmes aimed at helping women are set up - and Afghan female activists are murdered and silenced. A constitution that proclaims equal rights for men and women is approved - and is then broken daily by the judgments of local shuras and jirgas, traditional assemblies of elders."

The Times

It's things like this that are going to make people wonder if it's worth the blood and treasure to back a regime which is little better than the one it replaced.


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Last edited by Wab; April 4th, 2009 at 2:12 am.
  #77  
Old June 30th, 2009, 5:09 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

And more on just what a shiny happy place the invasion has made Afghanistan. (Malalai Joya is one of the bravest people on the face of the Earth.)

"Everyone is talking about this time the civil war happen but what's going on today - let's do talk about - itself is like a civil war. Today our people are between two enemies, internal enemies Taliban, who are anti-US terrorists - and Northern Alliance, who are pro-US terrorists."


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  #78  
Old July 11th, 2009, 3:56 am
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Another potential skeleton in the closet with reports of a possible cover-up of the murder of thousands of Taliban prisoners by a warlord on the payroll of the CIA who worked closely with US Special Forces.

NYT

Was the administration so naive that they believed that warlords of the regime which introduced the perverted form of Sharia law in Afghanistan would behave honourably just because they were labelled "good guys"?


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  #79  
Old September 1st, 2009, 7:04 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

The McChrystal report is in and the general concedes that the war is being lost and that a change of strategy is called for.

"The conflict will be won by persuading the population, not by destroying the enemy.''

SMH


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You got what anybody gets . . . You got a lifetime. -- Death of the Endless
  #80  
Old September 1st, 2009, 10:05 pm
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Re: Afghanistan: its present and future

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wab View Post
The McChrystal report is in and the general concedes that the war is being lost and that a change of strategy is called for.

"The conflict will be won by persuading the population, not by destroying the enemy.''

SMH
Sounds like a smart guy. What is he / she proposing as a change in strategy?


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